Housing Affordability Falls On Highest Cost Of Living Figures Since 1991

June’s Consumer Price Index showed a 5 percent year-over-year increase in what is now the largest annual Cost of Living increase for Americans in 17 years.

This is bad news for active home buyers because rising costs are considered inflationary and inflation causes mortgage rates to increase.

Predictably, mortgage rates jumped Wednesday morning after the CPI data was released and they edged higher throughout the rest of the day.

This morning, mortgage rates are higher again on unexpected strength in housing starts and building permits across the country.

Applying the mortgage rate movement this week to the true cost of owning a home, the quarter-percent increase since Tuesday has added $192 in extra mortgage payments per year per $100,000 borrowed.

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How To Save Time When Weeding Your Yard

In this two-and-a-half minute video from Expert Village, nurseryman Scott Reil tells us:

  1. Why weeding is important
  2. How to weed with efficiency at home
  3. How to use mulch as a weed-retardant

There are two basic ways to weed a garden, according to our video host — you can use your hands or you can use your garden tools. Both are effective, but the latter can be a real time-saver.

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Fannie And Freddie Are Yesterday’s News, Says The Market

Investors have turned their attention back to the U.S. economy this morning, causing yesterday’s mortgage rate improvements to unwind a bit.

Rates had fallen Monday after the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury’s joint announcement in support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Today, it’s the data that is taking center stage.

Most notably, the U.S. Dollar is trading at an all-time low versus the Euro and other currencies.

This is a negative for active home buyers because American homeowners repay their mortgage interest in U.S. dollars. When the dollar loses value, so does the value of those interest payments so mortgage rates end up increasing in order to attract new investors.

Another reason why mortgage rates are higher this morning is that June’s Producer Price Index registered much higher than was expected, posting its largest one-month gain since November 2007.

PPI is a lot like the Cost of Living index, except that it measures operating costs for businesses instead. When business costs are increasing, they are often passed onto consumers and this is why rising PPI is thought to be inflationary and inflation — like a weakening dollar — pressures mortgage rates to rise.

So, while Monday’s rate improvements haven’t completely erased, today’s action reminds us that mortgage markets wait for no one and yesterday’s mortgage rates rarely carry forward.

Especially when inflation is in the mix.

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The Cities In Which Your Job Pays More

Houston is among the nation's highest-paying cities after accounting for Cost of Living adjustmentsEvery city in America is its own micro-economy. Jobs pay differently from place-to-place and the Cost of Living varies, too.

Knowing that, Business Week followed a simple, three-step methodology to determine the “Best And Worst Cities For Your Job“.

  1. Choose 20 common professions for Americans
  2. Research what the professions pay in each of the 25 largest metropolitans areas in the country
  3. Adjust the salaries for each area’s unique Cost of Living

The complete survey features popular jobs such as financial analyst, human resources manager, and legal assistant.

Not surprisingly, cities such as Houston, where housing is affordable, topped many of the professions. Manhattan dwelled near the bottom.

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How Is The Economy Doing? It Depends Who You Ask.

“Economic uncertainty” is turning into a 2008 buzzword and there’s a lot of good reasons why.

On the one hand, there are precursors to inflation in the economy:

  • Rising oil costs
  • Rising food prices
  • Higher Cost of Living

On the other hand, there are precursors to recession in the economy, too:

  • Mounting job losses
  • Less access to credit and/or loans
  • Falling consumer confidence data

The pie chart at right illustrates just how uncertain the “experts” are about the state of the U.S. economy. They’re evenly split, right down the middle.

This isn’t good news or bad news for Americans, per se, but it does legitimize the idea that the economy’s future direction is in doubt. This is one of the biggest reasons why there’s been no clear direction for mortgage rates or stock markets since the start of the year, and that can impact the housing markets, too.

Until the picture gets more clear, we can expect the volatility to continue.

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Foreclosure Rates Are Falling (Despite What You See In The Headlines)

Foreclosures fell in June 2008 by 3 percent from May 2008According to RealtyTrac, the rate of foreclosures across the U.S. is slowing. Versus May, June foreclosures fell at a 3 percent clip.

25 states showed improvement month-over-month, led by many of the same areas that had fueled foreclosure activity in 2007.

A sampling of RealtyTrac’s data includes:

  • California : Foreclosures down 4.54 percent
  • Georgia : Foreclosures down 14.91 percent
  • Arizona : Foreclosures down 0.07 percent
  • Michigan : Foreclosures down 6.00 percent
  • Illinois : Foreclosures down 15.65 percent

However, the improving nature of the data is not what is making news this morning. Instead, the press is reporting that foreclosures are up by half since last year and that bank seizures have tripled.

And while the annual data may be accurate, that doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily relevant to home buyers and home sellers across the country.

This is because people buying and selling homes don’t usually boast an “annual” mentality; when someone’s an active participant in the real estate market, the mentality is “right now”.

In other words, annual data fits an economist, but month-to-month data fits you.

June’s foreclosure data may be the start of a trend, or it may be a blip. It’s really too soon to tell. But the RealtyTrac data reinforces what real estate professionals already know — that markets all over the country are showing signs of life.

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The “Sheep Effect” On Your Housing Payment

In times of uncertainty, mortgage bond traders make like sheep and follow the herdA noon-hour, mortgage-bond rally rendered homes more affordable for Americans Tuesday. It was the second straight day on which this happened.

On both days, the action was swift.

The speed at which Monday’s and Tuesday’s respective rallies tore through mortgage markets illustrates how deep the uncertainty that surrounds the U.S. economy really is.

One reason why the market swings so quickly is that, lately, traders are tending to follow the herd.

As a mortgage rate shopper, it’s outstanding when the herd is moving in your favor. However, when the herd moves in the opposite direction, the impact on your monthly housing cost can be huge.

Volatility has been the common theme for mortgage rates in 2008 and it’s likely to remain a factor until the nation’s economic picture gets a little bit more clear.

Some experts are saying that may happen in 2009. Therefore, you should be prepared for rapid mortgage rate movement and act accordingly when you see a rate-and-payment combination that makes sense for your household budget.

The payment you see in the morning is likely to be gone by the afternoon.

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Why July May Be The Best Time To Write A Purchase Contract In 2008

Time is running out for Alt-A borrowersIt’s a terrific time to buy a home, but not because homes happen to be affordable.

It’s a terrific time to buy because the variety of mortgage products available to home buyers looks poised to shrink.

Monday, Alt-A mortgage lender IndyMac Bank stopped accepting mortgage applications and it’s likely that other Alt-A lenders will likely follow suit.

Alt-A loans are ones in which borrowers can’t (or won’t) verify one of two major underwriting criteria:

  • Evidence of income
  • Evidence of assets

Since the Credit Crunch began last July, Alt-A mortgages have been a steady source of funds for “in-between” borrowers — those that are not quite prime, and not quite sub-prime. IndyMac was among the largest lenders of its type and had outlasted many of its peers.

Its position as a market leader and subsequent exit from lending means that the remaining Alt-A lenders will likely make one of two choices in the coming weeks:

  1. Raise rates and fees because of greater Alt-A mortgage risk, or
  2. Follow IndyMac’s lead and exit mortgage lending altogether

Both outcomes would be harsh for home buyers of all types because when any large bank takes mortgage-related losses like IndyMac just did, it tends to create major risk aversion in the market.

Risk aversion impacts everyone – even the “good” borrowers.

Banks have been nervous about lending for several months and so they’d rather pass on an “average” mortgage application rather than risk getting stuck with a potentially “bad” one. IndyMac’s exit may cause fewer mortgages to get approved.

In other words, buyers eligible for financing today may be ineligible tomorrow.

Therefore, if you’re a home buyer and you know your credit profile is less-than-ideal, consider writing a purchase contract sooner rather than later. Your mortgage options may be thinning, and the ones you have may be getting more expensive.

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10 Cities That May Be Signaling That The Worst Of Housing May Already Be Over

Last week, Forbes Magazine published a Top 10 list that should grab the attention of housing market bottom-feeders.

The Top 10 list of Increasingly Affordable U.S. Housing Markets shows that falling home prices and steady mortgage rates are providing a support floor in some of the country’s most beat-up regions.

The report’s methodology is simple:

  • Take citywide income data as reported by HUD
  • Match it against purchase prices from court records
  • Run the math using “prevailing interest rates” from Wells Fargo

A city is considered “more affordable” if increasing numbers of “average families” can afford “average homes”. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the Forbes list is dominated by cities in which home prices have plummeted over the last year, and in which he economy is relatively sound.

This may suggest that a housing rebound is already underway in several of the cities listed as Increasingly Affordable U.S. Housing Markets, including:

  • San Diego, CA
  • Orlando, FL
  • Riverside, CA
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Las Vegas, NV

Read the complete study and its results at Forbes.com.

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How Job Losses In The Economy Are Helping Home Affordability

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report.

More commonly, it’s called the “jobs report”.

The jobs report is a sector-by-sector look into the U.S. economy and whether businesses are hiring — or firing — workers. This is one of the reasons why its release is so hotly anticipated each month — the jobs report can reveal a lot about the state of the U.S. economy.

Last month, the economy shed 62,000 jobs.

Now, many people will assume that job losses like this are terrible for the U.S. economy. Sometimes, that’s true.

This month, it’s not.

Given the ongoing tug-o-war between inflation and recession, markets are somewhat pleased with the June job loss figures because job losses reduce the likelihood of inflation in the U.S. economy.

Inflation is considered by many — Ben Bernanke included — to be among the top threats to the U.S. economy — it devalues the dollar and leads to increases in the Cost of Living.

Inflation also threatens home affordability because mortgage rates tend to rise when inflation is present.

June’s job losses — while bad for those impacted — is helping to relieve inflationary pressures on the economy and that is boosting markets performance this morning. Stocks are slightly up, and mortgage rates are slightly down.

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